生命周期清单的不确定性分析

Analysis of the uncertainty of life cycle inventory

文章结合多元线性回归模型与偏回归平方和理论,对生命周期输入清单数据的不确定性进行分析。首先对数据质量5个方面进行定量分析,结合目前常用的数据质量指标方法确定各数据的概率分布,然后对清单输入数据进行回归分析,建立回归分析模型,计算得出总体不确定性;通过计算各清单输入的偏回归平方和得出各清单输入对回归因变量Y影响较为显著的数据,从而确定各数据对结果的不确定性,最后将该方法应用于洗碗机生命周期清单数据中。

Based on the multivariate linear regression model and the theory of the partial regression squares, the uncertainty of life cycle inventory is analyzed. Firstly the five aspects of data quality are quantificationally analyzed, and the probability distribution of the data is determined based on the common data quality index method. Then the regression analysis of the inventory input data is carried out, and a regression model is set up to calculate the total uncertainty. Through the calculation of the sum of the partial regression squares of inventory, the data which have marked impact on the regression dependent variable Y are obtained, so the uncertainty caused by the data can be obtained. The method is used in the life cycle inventory of a dishwasher to verify its feasibility.