2010年青海玉树7.1级地震的前震识别及短临预报可能性研究

On Foreshock Identification and Short-term Predictability of the 2010Yushu M_S7.1 Earthquake

2010年4月14日青海玉树发生了7.1级地震,在震前2小时发生了一次4.7级前震。分析表明,玉树7.1级地震前一些主要的地震活动异常多有显示,例如空区、条带、增强和平静等,且与7级大震震例比较,这些前兆地震活动图像的演变具有类似的过程。跟踪这些图像及其演变有可能识别前震。最后评估了该识别方法的可信度。

An MS7.1 earthquake hit Yushu area in Qinghai province on April 14th,2010,and there was a foreshock with MS4.7 two hours before the main event.According to our analysis,some typical precursory seismic patterns appeared before the earthquake,e.g.seismic gap,seismic band,increased activity,seismicity quiescence,and evolution of those seismic patterns before the MS7.1 earthquake exhibit a course very similar to that found for earthquake cases with MS≥7.By tracking the pattens and their evolution,it is possible to identify the foreshock from general middle shocks.Finally we have confirmed the reliability of this method.