考虑新能源发电不确定性的可用输电能力风险效益评估

Evaluation of Risk and Benefit of ATC Relating to Uncertainty of Renewable Energy Power Generation

随着新能源发电的迅速发展,其功率输出的间歇性、随机性将对可用输电能力(ATC)产生显著影响。利用蒙特卡洛仿真法模拟新能源发电出力间歇性、随机性和负荷波动以及系统设备状态的不确定性,通过最优潮流求解特定系统状态和参数下的ATC;利用概率统计理论确定ATC样本值的概率密度,基于此建立ATC的风险效益模型,通过数值分析技术确定综合效益最大的ATC。从发电设备位置、功率输出不确定性、穿透率等方面研究新能源发电对ATC的影响。用包含风电、光伏电源的改进IEEE 118系统验证了方法的有效性。

With the rapid development of renewable energy power generation, its intermittence and stochastic of output power have significant influence on available transfer capability （ATC）. The characteristics of the renewable energy power generation, e.g. the intermittence, stochastic, load fluctuation, and status uncertainty, are simulated through Monte Carlo simulation method. The ATC under specific status and parameters of system are solved through optimal power flow. The probability density of ATC samples is defined by applying probability statistics theory to establish a risk benefit model, and to achieve ATC with maximum comprehensive benefits. To analyze the influence of renewable energy power generation on ATC, with respect to position of power generation equipment, uncertainty of power output and penetration level etc. The method is validated by simulation on a modified IEEE 118 system involving wind power and solar power.