安徽省经济增长与环境压力的脱钩关系研究——基于物质流分析

Delinking Relationships between Economic Growth and Environmental Stress in Anhui Province:Based on MFA Method

根据物质流分析指标和数据,采用脱钩模型和环境库兹涅茨曲线(environmental Kuznets curve,EKC)理论,分析了1990—2007年安徽省经济增长与环境压力之间的关系。结果表明:全省经济增长与环境压力基本实现相对脱钩,但经济增长仍然依靠高物质投入和高污染排放;近年经济增长与环境压力呈现扩张性复钩现象,说明经济增长的同时不仅环境压力未见下降,反而物质利用强度和污染物排放强度增加;EKC分析进一步揭示,全省经济增长与环境压力实现绝对脱钩仍需较长时间和较多物质投入。改变现有经济增长方式,提高资源生产力,使EKC顶点左移的同时实现穿山式发展,是实现全省经济增长与环境压力绝对脱钩的最优路径。

According to the indicators and data of material flow analysis （MFA）, the de-linking and re-linking theory and the EKC theory, this article analyzed the relationships between economic growth and environmental stress in Anhui Province from 1990 to 2007. Results showed that： the relationships between economic growth and environmental stress almost represented the relative de-linking state, but the economic growth still depended on the high material inputs and outputs; In recent years, the relationships between economic growth and environmental stress appearing the expansionary re-linking state declared with the economy growing the environmental stress did not decline and the intensity of material use and emission increased; the EKC analysis showed if economic growth and environmental stress had achieved the absolute de-linking, this process would need longer time and more material inputs. Currently, improving the mode of economic development and enhancing the resource productivity, which can make the turn point of EKC move left and realize the tunneling development, is the optimal path receiving the absolute de-linking between economic growth and environmental stress.