基于生态足迹的区域生态适度人口研究——以新疆生产建设兵团为例

Research on Regional Optimum Population on the Base of Ecological Footprint:Take Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps as an Example

适度人口取决于生态、经济和土地等多要素的综合承载力。介绍了生态足迹模型的基本概念和计算方法,并运用该模型对兵团1995—2008年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行了计算,在此基础上对兵团的1995—2010年的生态适度人口进行了估算。结果表明,1995—1999年兵团的实际人口虽然在增加,但相对于生态适度人口并没有出现过剩;2000—2010年兵团生态适度人口在不断下降,实际人口和过剩人口却在不断增加。兵团目前已经出现了过度人口和生态赤字,人地矛盾相对紧张,生态适度人口规模是不合理的。

The optimum population rests on the comprehensive carrying capacity of many factors, such as the ecological, economic and land, etc. This paper, firstly, introduced the key conceptions and procedures of the model, and then calculated the ecological footprint and the ecological capacity from 1995 to 2008 in Corps. On this basis, the optimum population was estimated from 1995 to 2008 in Corps. During 1995-1999, the actual population of Corps gradually increased, and the eco-optimum population of Corps did not exceed the actual population. During 2000-2008 ,the actual population gradually increased, while the eco-optimum population of Corps gradually declined. It revealed that Corps had already in a state of national ecological deficit and overpopulation, and the current size of the population was unreasonable.