内蒙古皇甫川流域作物生长期气候旬变异特征及其对作物产量效应分析

Analysis of climate variability in ten-day scale during crop growing season and its effect on crop yield in Huangfuchuan Basin of Inner Mongolia

皇甫川流域地处我国北方半干旱区,作物生产对气候变化具有明显的脆弱性。利用该流域1961—2000年生长季（5~9月）的降水、气温数据、农作物播种面积和产量数据,深入分析作物生产对旬尺度降水、气温变异的响应。研究表明,排除社会经济因素影响,皇甫川流域农作物生产对旬尺度降水、气温变异有明显响应,但不同农作物的响应程度不同,同一种农作物对不同旬的响应亦不同;8月上旬降水量的丰缺对糜黍、玉米、薯类和谷子等农作物的气候产量有明显正效应,6月下旬和7月上旬降水量的多少对高粱的气候产量有决定性的影响;5月中旬最高气温和7、8月份各旬平均气温、最低气温和最高气温的升高,都可能使农作物的气候产量不同程度降低。因此,加强生态环境建设特别是生长季（尤其是7、8月份）旱作区的田间管理,降低农业生产对气候变化的敏感性,显得尤为重要和必要。

Huangfuchuan basin belongs to semiarid region in northern China, where crop production has a significant vulnerability owing to climate change. Precipitation and temperature data during the growing season, crop acreage and production data from 1961--2000 in Huangfuchuan basin are used to analyze the response of crop production to pre- cipitation CV and temperature CV. The results show that, excluding the impact of socio-economic factors, the response of crop production to ten-day precipitation CV and temperature CV is significant, but for different crops and ten-days, the response is different; During the first ten days of August, the abundance of rainfall has significant positive effect on climatic yield of main crops such as broomcorn millet, corn, potato, millet etc, while during the last ten days of June and the first ten days of July, the amount of precipitation has decisive impact on climatic yield of sorghum; The climatic yield of main crops may reduce if the maximum temperature during the middle ten days of May, and the mean, minimum and maximum temperature of all days during July and August rise. Therefore, it is particularly important and necessary to improve the ecological environment, especially strengthening dry-zone field management during the growing season （mainly July and August） and to reduce the sensitivity of agricultural production to climate change.