加总模式变迁视角下系统性金融风险研究演进评述

The Evolution of Financial Systemic Risk Models with the Perspective of Changes in Aggregation

系统性金融风险分析框架的选取问题是理论与实务界对系统性金融风险研究争论的焦点之一。建立完善的分析框架需要立足于合理的宏观加总,而用于构建系统性金融风险分析框架的加总模式主要包括简易累加、新古典宏观加总和宏观审慎原则下的新加总模式。对不同加总模式下的系统性金融风险研究成果进行纵向梳理与横向比较分析发现:当前对于系统性金融风险的研究应着眼在货币量值加总的基础上,形成具备一定理论基础的整体分析框架。

Theorists have still debated in the selection of reasonable and effective models for financial systemic risk. The analysis should be based on the reasonable macro-aggregation. The simple accumulation model, the Neo-classical macro-aggregation model and the new aggregation model under the Macro Prudence are the main macro--aggregation models for building the analysis framework which included in. This paper combed the researches both vertically and horizontally, in order to find that in the debate between macro-aggregation based on the new classical aggregate production function and aggregation calculated in money, the monetary macro-aggregation could avoid the logical paradox, and enhance the efficiency in doing the research.