对中国省级地区相对价格水平的估计——基于一般化空间CPD模型的研究

Estimation of the Relative Price Level of China's Provincial-level Regions——based on Generalized Space CPD Model

在国际比较项目常用的CPD方法基础上引入空间自相关性,构造了一般化空间CPD模型,并以此为基础对中国31个省级地区相对价格水平进行了估计。一方面,研究采用随机法从不同的角度验证了以往文献采用指数法得到的一些基本结论,包括价格水平与名义收入水平正相关以及地区间真实生活水平差异小于货币收入表示的名义收入差距等。另一方面,研究发现,中国各地产品价格表现出了一定程度的空间聚集现象,传统CPD模型无法解决这一问题,而本文空间CPD模型可做出有效处理;地区间价格差异的水平与市场一体化程度之间可能并不存在必然联系,推测两者间可能存在倒U型曲线关系。

This paper developed a generalized space CPD model by introducing spatial autocorrelation to the CPD model usually used in the International Comparison Program and then estimates the relative price level of China＇s 31 provincial-level regions. On the one hand, some basic conclusions of the previous literatures which used index methods were verified from a different point of view by this paper which used random method, including the price level is positively eorrelated with the nominal income level and the real income gap among regions is less than the nominal income gap among regions and so on. On the other hand, we find that the products prices in different regions show a certain degree of spatial aggregation and the traditional CPD model can not solve this problem. However, the generalized space CPD model developed by this paper can provide effective treatment. In addition, this paper find that inter-regional price differenees level and the market integration level may not be inherently tied, and speeulated that the inverted U-shaped relationship may exist between them.