反事实分析与公共政策制定——以“自行车难题”为例

Counterfactual Analysis and Public Policy Making: A Study on the Bicycle Dilemma

本文尝试将反事实分析法引入公共政策制定,用于预先评估某项公共政策可能引发的预期效果和非意愿后果。选取城市治理中的"自行车难题"为案例,探讨反事实分析法在公共政策制定过程中的适用范围、应用方法和分析过程。现有研究认为,惩罚成本过低是导致"自行车难题"的主因,因而提高惩罚的治理政策就能解决"自行车难题"。本文采用犯罪经济学的分析框架,通过反事实分析,系统地考察惩罚严厉的治理政策的社会效果,得出与之相反的结论:惩罚严厉的治理政策仅考虑了单一的盗窃成本与收益,但实际上犯罪者的行为选择受各种社会条件制约,严厉的惩罚政策不但不能解决治理问题,并有可能导致社会治安恶化的非意愿后果。单一政策目标和复杂社会系统之间的矛盾是中国公共治理中广泛存在的问题,而在政策制定中引入反事实分析则是避免这一困境的有效途径。

This Article applies counterfactual analysis on public policy making to evaluate the intended results and unintended results of some public policy beforehand.Using the 'bicycle dilemma' as a critical case and criminal economic as an analytical framework,this article discusses the applied scope,methodology and process of counterfactual analysis.Most of recent researches emphasized that the reason of the 'bicycle dilemma' is too low cost of penalty and increasing the penalty cost can settle the dilemma.Using criminal economic as an analytical framework,this article applies counterfactual analysis to study the social results of a public policy of severe punishment.And the conclusion is that: a public policy of severe punishment only considers the cost and profit of stealing bicycles.But in fact,the behaviors of criminal are confined by various social conditions.Thus,a public policy of severe punishment can not only settle the 'bicycle dilemma',but also may be result in some unintended results which make the public security even worse.The contradiction between simple policy aim and sophisticated social system is an important problem in China's public administration,and using counterfactual analysis is an useful method to avoid this dilemma.