公共管理视角下的中国危机管理研究——现状、趋势和未来方向

Crisis Research in China under the Perspective of Public Administration:Past Patterns,Current Trends and Future Directions

中国近年来社会科学视角的危机管理研究已进入瓶颈期。本文旨在梳理这十年来公共管理视角下的危机管理相关研究,以期为危机管理研究进一步深入发展提供参考。评述文献主要来源于公共管理、政治学、管理学和综合社会科学领域的重要学术期刊以及依据专业知识所选取的近些年来具有代表性的研究专著和报告。在对文献进行分类、编码和统计分析之后,分析结果表明:危机事前分析的文章占据主导地位,而对危机应对过程和危机后分析相对不足;应然研究类文章占据很大比重,但对于危机理论的建构和实证检验的研究比较缺乏;对于危机的综合分析多于单灾种分析。近些年中,虽然上述研究方式依然居于主导地位,但是研究者开始关注危机后的分析,注意理论的建构和检验,特别值得注意的是对于社会安全事件的分析呈上升趋势。最后,本文结合危机管理研究的现状和趋势总结出未来值得研究的若干领域。

Chinese researchers from the social science areas have conducted crisis research for a decade.This paper aims to review the development of Chinese crisis research under the lens of public administration.The literature mainly comes from selected mainstream journals in public administration,political science,management science,and general social science.A small amount of literature is identified by the authors based on personal expertise.After coding the literature based on our categorizing dimensions,we analyze the past research areas,current trends and research methods adopted.Based on the analysis,this paper tries to portray some tentative future directions of crisis research in China.The analysis indicates that: [1] current research focuses mainly on the prior-crisis phase instead of the during-crisis phase or post-crisis phase;[2] the method of normative analysis has been adopted in most studies while theory development or testing has been less emphasized;[3] all-hazard analysis has been commonly discussed,while in-depth single hazard study is rare.We also find that in recent years,crisis research in China moves towards several new trends.These trends include that: [1] the number of the during-crisis and post-crisis analysis is slightly increasing;[2] theory development and test attracts academic attention;and [3] a growing number of researchers try to explore the social riots.This research captures the current territory of crisis research under the perspective of public administration based on research data coming from mainstream Chinese journals in the field.