一种基于经济、社会、环境可持续发展的城市群低碳优化模型

An optimal model for low-carbon urban agglomeration based on sustainable development of economy,society and environment

结合"十二五"某城市群区域规划,选取规划中提出的碳强度、能耗强度两项指标为约束条件,构建了一种基于经济、社会、环境可持续发展的城市群低碳优化模型。优化结果表明:在满足碳强度、碳汇面积、能耗强度、GDP等条件下,城市群"十二五"末期碳排放总量为3.70×107t,较2010年区域碳强度下降了35.56%,能耗强度下降了40.49%,城市群"核心区"碳强度下降了36.77%,能耗强度下降了37.99%,不仅满足国家《"十二五"控制温室气体排放工作方案》中提出2015年的碳强度、能耗强度较2010年分别降低17.00%和16.00%的要求,而且满足该城市群区域规划中提出2015年的碳强度、能耗强度较2010年分别降低18.00%和20.00%的目标,该优化方案为城市群的低碳发展提供了一定的决策空间。

Combined with an urban agglomeration regional planning in the latest 12th five-year plan, two indicators of carbon intensity, energy intensity were selected as constraint condition, and an optimal model of low-carbon urban agglomeration based on sustainable development of economy, society and environment was constructed. The optimation results showed that when carbon intensity,carbon sink area,energy intensity and GDP was contended,the carbon emission of urban agglomeration in the end of 12th Five is 3.70x107 t , which decreased by 35.56% compared to the 2010＇s,and energy intensity was decreased by 40.49%; the carbon intensity and energy intensity in the core area was decreased by 36.77% and 37.99% ,the optimized scheme not only meet the requirements of carbon intensity decreased by 17.00%, energy intensity decreased by 16.00% in 2015 compared with those in 2010 proposed by the 12th five planning outline of controlling greenhouse gas emission, but also complied with the requirements of carbon intensity decreased by 18.00% and energy intensity decreased by 20.00% for regional planning targets. The optimized model provided some decision-making space for the sustainable development of low-carbon urban agglomeration.