城市可持续性发展的不同分析方法对比研究

Comparison of Two Analytical Approaches in the Assessment of Urban Sustainable Development

城市可持续性发展的分析方法有很多种。方法不同,结论也可能不同。文章旨在通过实例研究不同分析方法之间的差别,提出一种城市可持续性发展分析中能够应用的综合评价框架。并以成都市的发展为实例,重点比较分析2种方法,即熵值法和趋势分析方法。分析结果表明熵值法和趋势分析法在分析结果上有很大的区别。如前者侧重于经济发展,因而得出成都市的发展趋势是强可持续的;后者强调经济、能耗、及福利之间的相互关系,得出的结论是成都市的发展属于是能耗型发展,即社会福利和经济增长的同时,能耗也在增加。因而在分析判断城市是否可持续发展时,有必要采取不同类型的方法综合判定城市的可持续发展程度。并在制定政策以确保城市的可持续性发展时,综合考虑环境、经济、社会等各个方面的影响,并进行合理的调整,使之相互协调,共同发展。

A variety of approaches can be used to assess the sustainability for urban development, possibly leading to different conclusions. Two different approaches including entropy method and trend analysis method were used to evaluate the sustainability of urban development for Chengdu, Sichuan Province. Analysis results showed the conclusion on sustainability assessment differed by different approaches. The entropy method focused on economic development, thus a strong sustainable development for Chengdu was concluded due to fast economic growth in recent years. However, the trend analysis method looked into the relationships between economy, energy consumption and welfare, and concluded that overall urban development for Chengdu was eco--destructive since the energy consumption tended to increase at a rate higher than prior years with the growth of social welfare and economy. In order to assure a sustainable urban development, the sustainable development related decisions should be made by evaluating different aspects in environmental protection, social welfare improvement and economic growth.