技术复杂度偏好与中国出口增长--基于扩展引力模型的分析

Preference for Sophistication and China's Export Growth——Based on the Extended Gravity Model

基于嵌入消费者技术复杂度偏好的垄断竞争模型,本文推导出包含出口国技术复杂度与进口国人均收入交叉项的扩展引力模型,并以此解释中国出口增长。与以往研究强调中国自身供给因素不同,本文从进口国消费者"技术复杂度偏好"这一需求视角重新解读中国出口增长。结论认为出口国技术复杂度与进口国收入水平交叉项对双边贸易量具有显著稳健的积极影响;中国出口技术复杂度提升与国外消费者的技术复杂度偏好共同成就了中国出口增长。这意味着,进一步提升出口产品技术复杂度、满足国外消费者不断提升的技术复杂度偏好是实现中国出口可持续增长的可行选择。

Based on the monopoly competition model with consumer＇ s sophistication preference, we derive the extended gravity model which includes the interaction of export sophistication and importing country＇ s preference for sophistication, then we apply this model China＇ s export data. We arrive at the following conclusions： the interaction of export sophistication and importing country＇ s income level has positive and significant effects on bilateral trade volumes, and this is one reason of China＇ s export growth. This means, upgrading export sophistication to meet the demands of importing country＇ s consumer sophistication if a feasible policy choice.