分析师为什么选择性的发布现金流预测?——基于信息需求理论的实证研究

Why do Analysts Selectively Announce Cash Flow Forecasts? Empirical Evidence based on Information Requirement Theory

分析师在对公司发布盈余预测的同时,还对一些公司发布了现金流预测。分析师为什么仅针对某些公司发布现金流预测?其动因何在?本文基于信息需求理论对上述问题进行了研究,研究发现,分析师针对现金流信息需求高的公司发布现金流预测的可能性更大。进一步发现,分析师更可能对非国有控股的公司发布现金流预测。本文首次基于我国独特的制度背景,研究分析师选择性发布现金流预测的动因问题。本文的结论有助于加深对分析师行为的理解,并对投资者决策具有一定的参考价值。

Recent years, analysts began to release cash flow forecasts for some firms. Why do analysts issue cash flow forecasts only for specific companies？ What are their motivations？ Based on the information requirement theory, we did theoretical and empirical analysis to investigate those questions. Results show that, in order to satisfy investor＇s demand for information, ana- lysts tend to publish cash flow forecasts for companies from which investors demand more cash flow information. With further consideration of the special equity background of public companies in China, we find that analysts are more likely to issue cash flow forecasts for non-state owned firms, This is the first paper focusing on the cash flow forecasts under China＇s special institutional environment. Our results are helpful for a better understanding of analysts＇ behavior. They also have important im- plications for investors.