外商直接投资、经济波动与宏观调控政策

FDI,Economic Fluctuations and Macroeconomic Policies

外商直接投资与人民币汇率、国内外经济增长、劳动成本、资本市场收益率当中某一个变量之间的长期均衡关系受制于其它变量。与国内因素相比较,国际因素对外商直接投资长期趋势的影响更大。与人民币汇率的短期变动相比较,外商更加重视人民币汇率的长期趋势。另外,只有当经济系统失衡较小时,外商直接投资增长率才会在短期内对系统失衡做出显著反应。所以,宏观调控政策必须把握时机,尽量避免经济系统出现较大偏差。

The balance between FDI and any one of the macroeconomic factors, such as RMB exchange rate, economic growth, labor cost and capital returns at home and abroad, should be impacted by other factors. International factors have larger influ- ence on the trend of FDI compared with domestic factors, and foreigners put an eye on the long-term trend of RMB exchange rate compared with the short-term change which insignificantly impacts FDI. Only when systematic unbalance of economy is not above threshold, will growth rate of FDI react to the unbalance. In order to avoid larger unbalance, Macro-control should pay attention to policy timing.