我国财政支农支出与农业产出增长的动态关系研究——基于1978-2010年时序数据的实证分析

Dynamic relationship between governmental financial expenditure for supporting agriculture and agricultural output growth——An empirical analysis according to time-sequential data from 1978 to 2010

运用VAR模型的动态经济计量分析方法,对1978-2010年中国财政支农支出、第一产业就业人员和第一产业增加值之间的关系进行实证分析。结果表明,中国财政支农支出、第一产业就业人员与第一产业增加值之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,但从短期来看,财政支农支出并不是第一产业增加值增长的原因。财政支农支出冲击对第一产业增加值有正向影响,并在冲击后的第6年,对第一产业增加值的正向影响达到最大,但整体上影响幅度较小,且财政支农支出冲击对第一产业增加值波动的贡献份额也较小,并依据上述分析,提出相应的政策建议。

Empirical analysis is conducted on the relationship among the financial expenditure for supporting agriculture, employees of the primary industry and added value of the primary industry from 1978 to 2010 in China by the analysis method of the VAR dy- namic econometric model It is found that the long-term stable equilibrium relationship exists among the financial expenditure for supporting agriculture, employees of the primary industry and added value of the primary industry, but in the short-term the financial expenditure for supporting agriculture is not the cause of the increase of the added value of the primary industry. The response of the added value of the primary industry to the S.D. innovation impulsion of the financial expenditure for supporting agriculture is posi- tive with the maximum impact in the sixth year, however, the overall effect is weak, moreover, the contribution proportion of finan- cial expenditure for supporting agriculture to the fluctuation of the added value of the primary industry is small similarly. Finally, the corresponding policy is propeacd on the basis of the above analysis.