我国林产品对外贸易和经济发展的关系分析

Relationship between forest products foreign trade and economic development in China

运用格兰杰(Granger)因果检验法和联立方程组模型构建我国林产品对外贸易与经济发展关系的联立方程组模型,在样本区间内实证分析得出以下结论:(1)我国林产品出口与GDP之间具有正向相互促进作用,而林产品进口对GDP、林产品出口也均具有一定的正向促进作用;(2)林产品出口对GDP的贡献小于林产品进口对GDP的贡献。本研究为我国制订及实施科学合理的林产品贸易政策提供一个理论支撑。

Granger causality test method and simultaneous equation model are applied to conduct empirical analysis of the relation- ship between forest products foreign trade and economic growth in China. The conclusions are as follows. （ 1 ） There is a positive mu- tual promotion between exports of forest products and GDP. At the same time the imports of forest products also promote the exports of forest products and GDP to some extent. （ 2 ） The contribution of forest products exports to GDP is less than that of forest products imports to GDP. All the conclusions give us a theoretical and practical support to work out and implement scientific and rational poli- cies about forest products trade.