基于灰色系统的高速公路沥青路面综合使用性能预测

The Grey-System-Based Prediction of the Service Performance of Asphalt Pavement of Expressways

以京沪高速公路(河北段)沥青路面使用性能评价为例进行研究。分析了影响沥青路面使用性能的主要因素。选取了2007～2011年路面使用性能各项指标数据和交通量,建立了GM(1,N)模型,预测了京沪高速公路(河北段)2012～2016年沥青路面使用性能各分项指标,误差检验表明,预测精度较高。通过预防性养护前沥青路面单项指标衰变曲线分析,得到了沥青路面综合使用性能指标,为确定预防性养护时机提供了依据。

With the performance-evaluation of the asphalt pavement of the Hebei Section of the Beiiing-Shanghai Expressway as a practical example, the main factors affecting the performance of asphalt pavement are analyzed ia the paper. With the various service performance targets and the traffic volume of the pavement built during 2007-2011 chosen, a GM （1, N） model is estab- lished to forecast all the classified targets of the service performance of the asphalt pavement of the Hebei Section of the Beijing- Shanghai Expressway. The error tests show that the accuracy of the forecast is quite high. Through the analysis of the decay curve of a single target of the asphalt pavement prior to the preventive curing, the comprehensive service performance targets of the asphalt pavement are obtained. The paper provides the basis, upon which the right time forthe preventive curing may be determined.