主要排放部门的减排责任分担研究:基于全局成本有效的分析

Sharing the Burden of Mitigation among Key Emission Sectors in China: A Economy-wide Cost-effective the Perspective

运用中国能源与环境政策分析模型(CEEPA),从经济全局成本有效的角度,分析了一定减排约束下中国主要排放部门宜分担的减排责任及其减排行为。研究发现,基于排放量进行减排责任部门分担是有助于整体成本的,但对煤炭和运输仓储部门宜做出调整;随着减排目标的增加,应增添运输仓储部门的减排配额比例,减少煤炭部门的减排配额比例;短期内不宜对各部门尤其是煤炭部门设置较高的减排目标。

This study applies a CGE model for China＇s energy and environmental policy analysis （CEEPA） to analyze how the carbon mitigation burdens should be shared among key emission sectors in China, as well as how these sectors would behave to meet their burdens. This study finds that in general, allocating mitigation burdens based on historical emission could realize the national target in a cost-effective way. However, some adjustments should be made to coal and transportation sectors. The higher the national target, the burden shared by transportation sector should increase more while that shared by coal sector should increase less. The mitigation targets for all sectors, especially for coal sector, should not be set too high in the short term.