组合预测模型在安徽省粮食产量预测中的应用

The Application of Combination Forecasting Model to Forecast Grain Production in Anhui Provence

利用安徽省粮食产量的历史数据,分别采用一元线性回归、指数曲线及神经网络方法建立了安徽省粮食产量的预测模型。以此为基础,建立了安徽省粮食产量的组合预测模型,并对模型的适用性进行了检验。最后,应用该模型对安徽省未来10年的粮食产量进行了预测。结果表明,组合预测模型可以作为安徽省未来粮食产量预测的有效工具。

Firstly,we respectively make use of single linear regression model,exponent curve model and neural network to construct models depending on historical data of grain production in Anhui Provence.Secondly,we propose the combination forecasting model of grain production by minimum error square to allocate the weights,as well as testing the applicability of the model.Finally,we apply this kind of model to forecast grain production in following 10 years.The result shows that we can take the model as an effective tool to predict grain production in Anhui Provence.