美国货币政策对中国海洋经济周期影响的实证研究

Study of the Impact of American Monetary Policy on the China's Marine Economic Cycle

随着中国海洋产业对外开放水平逐步提高,海洋经济周期波动受到外界因素的影响也越来越明显。分析了美国货币政策溢出效应对中国主要海洋产业的影响。利用美国货币供应量M2的增长率和美元兑人民币的汇率所作的实证检验结果显示:海洋经济周期波动和美元兑人民币汇率存在着长期的均衡关系,美元兑人民币的汇率是海洋经济周期指数的格兰杰原因。脉冲响应函数分析认为,从整体来看美元兑人民币汇率升值,有利于中国海洋产业的发展。

With the level of China＇s ocean industries＇ opening-up improving gradually, the fluctuation of marine economic cycle influenced by external factors is more and more obvious. This paper analyzes how the spillover effect ocean economic cycle. The theory has proved of the U.S. monetary policy impacts the China＇s that the American monetary policy has a two-side impact on the China＇s ocean economic cycle. The empirical results from the growth rate of M2 of the U.S. and the exchange rate of the US dollar to RMB show that there is a long-term co- integration relationship between the marine economy cycle and the exchange rate, the exchange rate of the US dollar to RMB is the Granger reason of marine economic index. Pulse function analysis shows that the appreciation of the RMB is helpful for the development of China＇s ocean industries.