金砖国家 谁先折翼

Which BRIC Economy Will Fall First?

增长态势貌似良好的印度正在面临经济增长下滑、财政赤字扩大、通货膨胀高居的不良局面。6月12日,标准普尔发布报告,警告印度可能失去其＂投资级＂主权债务评级。目前,印度的长期主权信用评级是BBB-,仅比＂投机级＂高出一级。一旦被调低,印度将成为第一个失去＂投资级＂评级水平的金砖国家。

The Standard & Poor's warned in its report on June 12 that India might lose its investment-grade status. India's current long-term sovereign rating is BBB-, only above the speculative-grade status. India's rating was heightened to BBB- in January 2007, when it had the lowest GDP among all the economies which were listed as 'investment-grade.' It was its continuous high growth that heightened the rating. But things are changing. The country's economic growth rate in the first quarter of 2012 was reckoned to be 5.3%, remarkably lower than the past quarter and hitting the lowest record of the past seven years. If the prediction of the Standard and Poor's become true, Investors' zest for India will be heavily shocked. In fact, there has been a more and more apparent trend that the investment fled India during the past year because of the negative news. The Rupee-US Dollar exchange rate has went down by more than 20% accumulatively. Although the other BRIC countries, especially China, are less possible to drop to 'speculative-grade' level, they still face some long-lasting challenges. The sustainable growth will largely depend on how they tackle these problems.