我国先进战机出厂费用的预估方法

Estimation method of domestic advanced fighter's fly-away cost

由于年代上的差别、技术水平的提高和国内外研发体制的不同,国外已有的成熟估算模型不能直接用于国内先进战斗机(三代以上的战斗机)的出厂费用估算.针对这种问题,研究了国内外军工体制的差异、先进战斗机的新技术特征和研制过程的新特点对费用产生的影响,将研制体制、引进仿制、航电技术升级、改进改型和研制周期拖延5种因素考虑到费用计算当中.根据战斗机出厂费用数据统计,以Burns估算模型为基础,引入了相关的"费用因子",采用比例缩放、最小误差等方法,建立了一种国内先进战斗机出厂费用估算的新模型.以国外先进战斗机和国内三型战斗机作为算例,验证了新模型的有效性和实用性.

Because of the generation difference, the improvement in technology and the discrepancy of re- search and development （R＆D） system, the foreign estimation models, which have been extensively used un- til now, cannot be applied to calculate the domestic advanced fighter＇s fly-away cost. To solve this problem, the differences between domestic and foreign military industry system, the technical features of advanced fight- ers, and the new features in R＆D process were studied. In the process of cost calculation, 5 new factors were taken into account, including R＆D system, import and imitation of foreign fighters, technical improvement of avionics, modification and upgrade of previous fighters, discontinuity and delay of R＆D process. Based on the cost statistics and Burns model, those cost coefficients related to the above-mentioned factors were introduced into the calculation and a new model suitable for estimating the fly-away cost of advanced domestic fighters was constructed by means of scale and the least error. Some cases such as the foreign advanced fighters and domes- tic type-3 fighters were performed using this model, and the simulation results show the new model＇s validity and practicality.