经济发展对工业用水量的影响研究——基于我国东中西部面板数据的实证检验

Research of the Economic Development Effect on Industrial Water Consumption——Based on Cmpirical Test of Panel Data in Eastern China,Central China and Western China

选取我国东中西部1997—2010年的工业用水量和经济发展数据,检验人均工业用水量与人均GDP之间的关系,探索我国东中西部工业用水量与经济发展之间是否存在环境库茨涅茨曲线(EKC)关系,剖析我国东中西部经济发展与工业用水量之间的演变规律,建立曲线模型,通过模型计量分析结果表明:我国东中西地区经济增长与用水量之间不符合一般的环境库茨涅茨曲线特征,人均工业用水量随着人均GDP的变化曲线为"倒U+U"型,而中西部地区的"倒U"部分人均工业用水量下降不是很明显。东部地区人均工业用水量下降点对应的人均GDP的阈值为22 222元/人;中部地区人均工业用水量下降点对应的人均GDP的阈值为9 343元/人;西部地区人均工业用水量下降点对应的人均GDP的阈值为10 980元/人,这为我国东中西部工业用水量与经济增长的调控提供政策依据。

Through on the analysis of 1997 -2010 GDP per capita and industrial water consumption per capita in Eastern China, Central China and Western China. Inspect the relationship between GDP per capita and industrial water consumption per capita, Environmental Kuznets Curve has been established for determining the relationship of GDP per capita and industrial water consumption per capita in Eastern China, Central China and Western China. The result based curve model show that the relation of GDP per capita and industrial water consumption per capita do not accord ~ith the commonly rule of Environmental Kuznets Curve. The result show that the relationship of GDP per capita and industrial water consumption per capita is inverted U ＋ U pattern, the industrial water consumption per capital decline not obvious in inverted U Central China and Western Chi- na. The per capita GDP threshold of industrial water consumption per capita turning down is 22222 RMB/person in Eastern China; the per capita GDP threshold of industrial water consumption per capita turning down is 9343 RMB/person in Central China; the per capita GDP threshold of in- dustrial water consumption per capita turning down is 10980 RMB/person in Western China. It provides a theory for industrial water consumption and economic growth in Eastern China, Central China and Western China.