证券分析师预测偏差研究述评

Perspectives on forecast errors of securities analysts

证券分析师的预测是否可以准确地代表市场预期,进而提高市场效率,一直以来都是投资者关注的重点和学术界讨论的热点。现有研究发现,动机驱动和认知偏差等多方面因素可能导致证券分析师的有偏预测。本文从证券分析师预测偏差内涵及其测度差异的界定,导致偏差的动因以及预测偏差对信息有效性的影响等方面对预测偏差的研究脉络和研究进展进行梳理和评述,同时提出了未来的研究方向。

Forecasts by securities analysts and whether their accuracy can predict market expectations and improve market efficiency are closely observed by investors and widely studied by academia.Current research reveals that motivation and cognitive bias,together with other factors,may lead to forecast errors by securities analysts.By looking from perspectives of connotation of forecast error,identification of its measurement differences,motivation and the effect of forecast errors on information effectiveness,this article reviews and comments on the research context and progress on forecast errors.The findings also provide direction and recommendations for future research.