摘要
交通运输业碳排放占整个社会碳排放量比重很大,并呈现迅猛增长的态势。私人汽车数量增加及公众出行的机动车依赖是近年来交通碳排放量迅猛增加的主要原因。文章通过建立交通运输碳排放模型,定量分析了1991-2010年20年间交通运输部门碳排放量,指出其变化趋势。在此基础上,根据脱钩理论,预设碳排放增速与GDP增速之间的关系,模拟不脱钩、相对脱钩、绝对脱钩的3种未来低碳交通发展的情景。
Transportation is a high proportion of carbon emissions. And the carbon emissions continued upward trend. The primary causes of increasing carbon emissions was the sharp increase in private car and the change of trip mode. A model was set up to calculate the transportation carbon emissions from 1991 to 2010 .And then we found the trends of transportation carbon emissions. According to Decoupling theory ,we forecasted three situations of low carbon traffic ： non- decoupling , absolute decoupling and relative decoupling. And the last situation was regarded as a suitable target for china.
出处
《未来与发展》
2012年第7期55-59,共5页
Future and Development
关键词
低碳交通
碳排放量
测度
情景
low carbon traffic
carbon emission
calculation
situation
