亚太地区炼油工业及油品贸易现状与未来

Prospects for the refining industry and petroleum product trade in the Asia-Pacific region

截至2011年底,亚太地区原油一次加工能力达到3047万桶/日,其中中国的炼油能力达到1186万桶/日,居于榜首。一些规模巨大、现代化程度高、技术复杂的炼油项目正在世界新兴市场地区建设,亚洲正在成为未来全球的炼油中心,中国和印度引领亚太炼油能力的扩大。2012年,苏伊士以东地区的炼油能力的增加略大于需求,炼油毛利和2011年相比将有所回落,但幅度可能不大;2013年和2014年炼油毛利将面临下降压力;从2015年开始,随着大量新增炼油能力进入市场,炼油毛利将出现较大下滑。在产能扩张的同时,亚太炼油工业还在进行着产业结构调整和持续升级。2012-2015年,除中国地方炼油厂外,预计亚太地区将关闭78.2万桶/日的产能,另有31.6万桶/日的产能可能被关闭。2020年之前,亚太地区将继续是交通燃料(汽油、柴油和航空燃油)的净出口地区,以及液化石油气、石脑油、燃料油和沥青、石油焦、润滑油等石油产品的净进口地区。

At the end of 2011,total crude distillation capacity of the Asia-Pacific region reached 30.47 million barrels per day(b/d).With 11.86 million b/d,China has the highest refining capacity in Asia.From a global perspective,huge,modern,and sophisticated capacity is being built in the emerging markets around the world.Asia is becoming the future global refining center.Within the Asia-Pacific region,the capacity additions are led by China and India.For 2012,as capacity additions in the East of Suez region are projected to slightly outpace demand in East of Suez in 2012,refining margins are likely to ease from 2011,but probably not significantly.In 2013 and 2014,there will be downward pressure on refining margins.With huge capacity additions,we expect a major decline in margins beginning in 2015.In addition to the expansion of the crude distillation capacity,restructuring of the refining industry in Asia and upgrading continue.In 2012-2015,excluding closures of the Chinese local refineries,we expect that the Asia-Pacific region will close 782 thousand b/d under the firm and likely category and another 316 thousand b/d under the possible category.The Asia Pacific will continue to be a net exporter of transport fuels(gasoline,diesel and jet fuel) through 2020.The region will continue to be a net importer of LPG,naphtha,fuel oil,and products such as asphalt,petroleum coke,and lubes.