世界炼油行业发展现状与趋势

Current situation and trends of world oil refining industry

2011年,全球炼油能力比上年增加1470万吨/年,同比增长0.3%。欧美炼厂关闭导致该地区炼油能力下降,亚太地区炼油能力继续增长,占世界炼油总能力的份额从2010年的28.2%略上升到28.3%。世界炼厂总数回落至2008年的水平,加氢处理总能力同比增长0.7%;发达国家炼厂开工率仍保持较低水平,而新兴经济体炼厂开工率保持较高水平;世界炼油毛利水平总体小幅攀升,西欧地区毛利下滑。总体看,发达国家炼油业进入结构性调整期,欧洲炼油业继续萎缩,美国炼油业深度调整,日本炼油业遭受地震重创;而新兴经济体根据自身特点和不同需要继续发展炼油业。中东资源国提出新建炼厂和扩能计划,但融资困难及局势动荡使炼厂项目建设步伐缓慢。油品质量标准进一步趋严。预计2012年世界炼油能力过剩状况将加剧,炼油毛利可能持续承压,世界炼厂开工率仍将维持较低水平。

In 2011,annual global oil refining capacity increased by 14,700,000 tons,up by 0.3% year-on-year.The closing of refineries in Europe and the United States led to a decrease in oil refining capacity,while the oil refining industry of the Asia-Pacific region continued to grow,and its proportion of the total global capacity increased slightly from 28.2% to 28.3%.The total number of refineries in the world fell to that in 2008,while the hydrotreating capacity increased by 0.7%.The operating rate of refineries in developed economies remained low,while that in the emerging economies remained high.The gross margin of the global oil refining business witnessed a small increase,and that in Western Europe declined.Generally speaking,the oil refining industry in developed economies entered a period of structural adjustment.The oil refining industry in Europe continued to decline,in the United States it was subject to major adjustments,and the March 11 earthquake and tsunami inflicted heavy losses on Japan's oil refining industry.Emerging economies continued to witness the development of their oil refining industries according to their respective features and demands.Resourcerich countries in the Middle East launched plans to build new refineries and expand capacity.However,financing difficulties and political turbulence retarded refinery construction projects.Oil product quality standards have been further strengthened.In 2012,the overcapacity of world oil refining will intensify,the gross margin from oil refining may undergo continuous pressure,and the operating rate of refineries around the world will remain low.