新型农村社会养老保险可持续发展的仿真评估:基于人口老龄化视角

Simulation evaluation on the consistent development of new rural social pension insurance

新农保养老保险制度能否长期可持续发展,在于其长期保障水平与保障能力是否能承受我国人口老龄化趋势给社会经济发展带来的压力。在对我国未来农村人口年龄结构预测的基础上,构建养老金收支精算模型和人口预测模型,分析新型农村社会养老保险保障水平,并对基金收支平衡进行仿真和评估。仿真结果显示:未来30年左右养老金将会收不抵支,且通过调整基金收支约束变量以缓解基金缺口会与养老金的福利刚性发生冲突。为确保新型农村社会养老保险制度长期可持续发展,应探索新农保服务体系建设的社会参与机制和路径,创新地方社保基金投资管理模式,发挥市场配置资源的优势,促进制度的可持续发展。

Whether the new rural pension insurance system can maintain sustainable development or not,it lies in whether its long-term guarantee level and safeguarding capacity can withstand the pressure brought by the aging population in China to the development of social economy.Based on the prediction for age structure of Chinese rural population in the future,this paper constructs actuarial model of pension payments and population prediction model,analyzes the guarantee level of new rural social pension insurance,and makes simulation and evaluation on the pension fund balance.The result shows that receipts of pension fund cannot balance expenditure in the next 30 years.To alleviate the fund gap by adjusting constraint variables of receipts and expenses for the pension fund conflicts with rigid pension benefits.In order to ensure the new rural social endowment insurance system for long-term sustainable development,it is necessary to explore social participation mechanism and path for the service system construction of new rural endowment insurance,to innovate local fund investment management pattern,to take the advantage of market configuring resources,and to stimulate the sustainable development in mechanism.