能源价格与中国宏观经济:动态模型与校准分析

Energy Price and Macroeconomy:Dynamic Model and Calibration

能源价格的上涨和大幅度波动对中国宏观经济的影响日益凸显,探讨能源价格波动的传导机制,研究能源价格波动对我国宏观经济的影响具有很强的现实意义。本文首先分析中国宏观经济的一些特征事实,其次在实际经济周期模型中引入能源价格冲击,建立能源价格波动影响宏观经济的动态随机一般均衡模型,将模型参数校准到和中国经济发展的特征事实相一致,并比较模型经济和实际经济的接近程度。分析结果表明,引入能源价格冲击后,实际经济周期模型对真实经济的模拟效果相当理想。能源价格冲击的初始效应大于技术冲击;技术冲击持续的时间比能源价格冲击更长。

The rising and fluctuation of energy price have a significant effect on Chinese macroeconomic. Because of this, discussing the transmission mechanism of energy price impact and evaluating the impact of energy price change are becoming very important. At first, this paper discusses some stylized facts in Chinese macroeconomy, and then estab- lish dynamic stochastic generalized equilibrium model of energy price influencing mac- roeconomy by introducing energy price impulse into real business cycle （RBC）model. We calibrate the model parameters to match with the typical facts of Chinese economy develop- ment, and compare the degree of resemblance of the model economy and real economy. In result, the effect of real business cycle model fits the real economy is very ideally after introducing energy price. The initial impact of energy price impulse is bigger than technical impulse, but the persistent time of technical impulse is longer than energy price impulse.