山东省冬小麦干热风灾害预警模型研究

Early Warning Model of Dry and Hot Wind for Winter Wheat of Shandong Province

以30年的气象和产量数据为研究对象,对冬小麦成熟收获前16天的23个温度指标、23个空气相对湿度指标和16个风速指标与相对气象产量进行统计分析.通过相关分析确定不同生态区的干热风灾害风险因子,对不同生态区的风险因子和相对气象产量进行回归分析,构建冬小麦干热风灾害风险预警模型.结果表明:同类气象因子在不同生态区中的作用表现不同,模型因素构成以因子的互作为主,单因子的直接影响作用不突出.鲁西北和鲁中是干热风灾害的高危险区,鲁西南干热风灾害的危险最小.

Study the relationship between relative meteorological production and 23 temperature indexes, 23 relative air humidity （RH） indexes and 16 wind speed indexes. Data information included meteorological and yield data in 30a. The correlation and regression analyses on the data showed that different ecotopes had different risk factors; the same risk factor had different effect on wheat in different ecotopes. Interactive effects of risk factors were the main elements of early warning model. Dry and hot wind was serious in Northwest and middle part of Shandong Province, it was not serious in southwest.