用旬500hPa环流相似作贵州夏季月雨量预报

Forecast of Summer Monthly Precipitation in Guizhou by Circulation Analogue of 500hPa Ten-days Average Height

用贵州省夏季降雨与前期 5 0 0 h Pa各旬平均高度场进行相关分析 ,选出一批优势相关区 ,用历年各优势相关区格点与预报年作相似离度计算 ,作出夏季雨量预报。通过对 1998年、1999年试报 ,效果较好。

Some dominant correlation regions were selected by the results of correlation analysis between summer precipitation of Guizhou and previous 500hPa ten days average height.A forecast method of summer precipitation was developed based on the results of grid analogue discrete degree with historical dominant correlation region and predictive year.The forecasting results in 1998—1999 indicate that this method is efficient.