日本中期数值预报传真图在桂东地区春播预报中的应用

Application of Japanese “FEAS…” Fax To Spring-sowing Weather Forecast In Eastern Part of Guangxi

用近几年的日本中期数值预报传真图的 96～ 12 0 h5 0 0 h Pa环流、涡度预报场、 85 0 h Pa温度预报场及地面形势预报场与桂东地区受冷空气影响时段及低温阴雨天气过程进行对比分析 ,发现传真图对春播期的每次冷空气南下过程都能提前报出 ,对冷空气有较强的预报能力 ,为此 ,对这些传真图进行了归纳分析 ,找出一些桂东地区低温阴雨天气过程在日本中期数值预报传真图中的特征。

In this article, the 96~120h 500hPa circulating current, forecast field of vorticity, 850hPa temperature forecast field and the forecast field of ground situation in the Japanese “FEAS” FAX of the recent years are analyzed in comparison with the period affected by cold current and the low temperature and rainy spell progress in the eastern part of Guangxi The result showed that “FEAS…” has successfully forecasted every cold current in the spring-sowing period and it has high ability in forecasting cold current Hence, the author made deductive analysis to these “FEAS…” so as to find out the features of low temperature and rainy spell progress of the eastern part of Guangxi in Japanese “FEAS…” FAX charts