相似区间叠合集成法在降水预报中的应用

The Application of Consensus Method Superposed Analogue Range to Precipitation Forecast

在用相似预报方法制作安徽省汛期降水预报中 ,同时用相似系数和距离系数表征预报因子场的相似程度。并采用相似区间叠合集成法对找出的数十个相似年进行集成 ,客观地确定出预报量可能出现的范围 ,此方法预报效果良好。

A superposed analogue range consensus forecast method was presented.The method was applied to the precipitation forecast in flood season.The result shows that calculation is in good consistent with observations.