山东省干旱灾害的变化特征及相关分析

Variance Features and Correlativity Analysis of Drought Disasters in Shandong Province

干旱灾害是山东省的主要气象灾害之一 ,是影响农业经济可持续发展的重要因素。本文利用山东省近 4 0年的农业旱灾灾情资料和降水资料 ,分析了灾情特征和致灾因子变化特征 ,探讨了旱灾损失与降水异常的内在联系 ,建立了干旱受灾面积评估模式 ,为探索农业灾情评估和预测提供了依据。

Drought disaster is one of the major meteorological disasters and an important factor that affects the sustainable development of agricultural economy in Shandong province Based upon the data of agricultural drought disaster and precipitation of past 40 years in Shandong province, the characteristics of agricultural disaster and variance features of hazard causes are analyzed to provide the basis for assessment and prediction of agricultural disasters, the inherent relationship of drought disaster and anomaly of precipitation is discussed and a model for assessment of drought stricken area is established