预期寿命增长、年龄结构改变与我国国民储蓄率

Life Expectancy Growth,Age Structure Change and China′s National Saving Rate

人口年龄结构趋于老龄化和人均预期寿命逐步增长是目前我国人口发展的两个典型特征,而年龄阶段不同,个人的收入、消费与储蓄行为也不同。基于生命周期理论,在选定相关分析指标的基础上,文章使用我国省际平衡面板数据,实证分析了我国人口预期寿命增长和年龄结构改变对国民储蓄率的影响。分析结论表明,人口预期寿命增长提高了我国国民储蓄率;不考虑时间效应时,幼年人口负担比提高会减少国民储蓄率,而老年人口负担比提高会增加国民储蓄率;在考虑时间效应时,幼年人口负担比提高会增加国民储蓄率,而老年人口负担比提高会减少国民储蓄率。对此,文章给出了合理的解释。通过使用多种估计方法,我们发现所得到的结论是基本稳健的。

Two of the population trends in China are population aging and increasing life expectan- cy. There are differing patterns of income, consumption and savings across different age periods. U- sing inter- provincial balance panel data, this paper analyzes the influence on the savings rate by the life expectancy growth and age structure changes basing on the theory of life cycle. Theory analysis shows that Life expectancy growth improves the steady state savings, and age structure change af- fects individual saving behavior. The empirical analysis revealed that the increase of child population rates reduces national saving rate and the increase of old population rates improves national saving rate when the time effect is not controlled, while the increase of child population rates improves national saving rate and the increase of old population rates reduces national saving rate when the time effect is considered. The paper provideds a reasonable explanation to this conclusion. Testing using a variety of estimation methods and a range of combinations of related variable, we find that the conclusions obtained in this paper are robust.