都市区与非都市区城镇用地扩张的驱动力研究——以长三角地区为例

ON THE INFLUENCING FACTORS OF METROPOLITAN AND NON-METROPOLITAN URBAN LAND EXPANSION IN YANGTZE DELTA REGION

本文利用土地变更调查数据与经济社会统计数据,分析2001—2006年间长三角地区都市区与非都市区以及都市区内部不同单元的城镇工矿用地变动差异和主要影响因素,探讨都市区城镇用地扩展的驱动机制及演变特征。研究发现,虽然长三角地区城镇用地的整体扩张速度正趋于放缓,但变化趋势在不同类型的区域间存在明显差异。都市区比非都市区增长地更快,其中外围县地区超越中心市成为新一轮的增长热点地区。利用人口、非农产业、房地产投资等社会经济活动指标数据所做的回归分析表明,非农产业的发展是推动都市区城镇用地扩展的关键因素,而对非都市区的城镇工矿用地扩展而言,城镇人口集聚的拉动仍在起主要影响作用。在都市区内部存在功能分工的背景下,中心市与外围县在驱动因素和效果上存在差异。

As the predominant region for urban growth, spatial variance of urban growth in the metropolitan areas has drawn much academic attention in recent years. In order to reveal the typical driving mechanism of urban growth and the rule of metropolitan evolution in China, this paper initiates an analysis on the variance of urban land growth among different regions related to metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas, and tried to proclaim the differentiated factors that influenced the growth of region categories during the period of 2001-2006. Empirical study shows that, although the speed of urban growth in the whole region tended to slow down, the amount of land expansion in urban areas was still remarkable, with obvious differences a- mong sub-regions over the classification of metropolitan concept. According to the results of regression anal- ysis on different urban categories, the development of non-agricultural industry played a key role in urban growth in metropolitan areas, while non-metropolitan region was more influenced by urban population. Under the influences of regional labor division, the performance of driving factors was different between central city and outlying county areas. Along with the proceeding of the industry renewal in central cities, the third indus- try has become the predominant force to promote further growth of urban land. At the meantime, as an inter- mediate form between non-metropolitan and metropolitan areas, the outlying counties showed similarity both with central cities and non-metropolitan counties, with the spatial expansion being mainly influenced by ur- ban population and second industry growth.