旅游业发展趋势与面临压力:2012-2050

TOURISM-TRENDS AND TENSIONS TO 2050

国内大学的旅游研究已有30余载,1980年代没有因特网和信息技术影响,那时可否推测2012年的旅游业动态呢?2012—2050年旅游发展态势又将如何?本文首先确定经济、人口、年龄分布、气候等旅游发展动力。然后根据Yeoman教授提出的"旅游前景"设想,以资源多少和政治合作对抗两个动力维度构成矩阵,引用其"生态天堂"单元提出启示。最后预测新技术推动未来旅游更快、更大规模地发展,但会受制于多种压力,环境保护需求凸显。新旅游将基于新技术操纵人们感受的模式,并在新兴的大型城市间进行。旅游学者则要在更广阔的社会技术场景和城市规划中来研究旅游。

The study of tourism in Chinese universities has a history of approximately thirty years, but could we have foretold the nature of the industry in 2012 in about 1980, a period prior to the existence of the inter- net and the impacts of information technologies on marketing, image distribution and the use of knowledge management systems in the tourism industry？ How then might tourism appear by 2050？ This paper identifies drivers of tourist demand and supply; drivers that include economic growth, population growth and age distri- bution, climate change and the potential impacts of post peak oil production. Using information from the ＇Tourist Futures＇ scenario building project funded in New Zealand and the work of Yeomans, it reduces these drivers to two primary dimensions, the continua of resource adequacy or deficiency, and political co-opera- tion or rivalry to draw a matrix of four cells. As an example it briefly describes one of those cells as it was ap- plied to New Zealand, the cell of＇eco-paradise＇. This has implications for China in that it envisages a scenario where conservation or environment and culture is deemed important to the point where quotas are imposed on visitor numbers and licenses and permits are required to be purchased by tourists prior to their visit. Nonethe- less tourism will continue to grow as new technologies permit the duplication of the natural in urban centers that represent a nexus of leisure, recreation, retail, work and tourism activities, and where new generations oriented toward urban leisure and information technology feel at ease. Nonetheless the needs of business and a desire to see new places, and new emergent tourism markets allied to new aircraft and airport technologies plus new life patterns of the global worker will still lead to mass movements of people across the world, but much of this movement will be between growing mega cities. One implication for tourism researchers will be a need to locate tourism studies within wider socio-technological contexts and urban planning, and to envis- age tourism as part of the entertainment and leisure industries, and not simply as an activity divorced from these arenas of human activity.