高等教育规模与经济增长关系演变的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Evolution of Higher Education Scale and Economic Growth in China

基于扩招以来我国高等教育的发展,着重从规模及其地理空间分布两方面,探索高等教育规模与经济增长关系的演变。实证结果表明:随着经济增长,高等教育人口比重亟待持续提高,高等教育潜在规模仍有较大的增长空间;高等教育规模对经济增长的灵敏度逐渐提高,而且基本能做出相应调整,与经济增长日趋同步;高等教育人口重心与经济重心的地理空间分布趋同,而且均有南移态势,迁移距离缩减,高等教育规模变化速度趋于平稳。

According to the development of higher education, this paper emphatically explores the relationship evolution of higher education scale and economic growth from scale and geographical distribution since the expansion of China＇s universities. The empirical study proves that with economic growth, the rate of China＇s higher educational population needs improving urgently and higher education potential scale still have larger growth space. The higher education scale can make corresponding adjustments to keep pace with economic growth, which has more and more high sensitivity. Higher education population gravity and economic gravity run mostly in the same direction in geographical spatial distribution, and they all have southward trend. Meanwhile, their migration distance is shrinking, and the growing speed of higher education scale tends to be stable.