策略人和策略决策模型：草原管理的智能体模拟分析

Tactical Man and the Tactical Decision-Making Model:Agent-Based Simulations of Grassland Management

传统决策理论忽视了对人的策略性行为和策略决策的考察。本文通过对草原管理的智能体模拟分析,发展了策略人和策略决策新模型,并重点研究了策略人的四种典型策略决策:策略性投票、掩盖性、交易性和学习性策略决策。智能体模拟分析发现,在特定条件下,策略人的策略决策深刻影响个体的具体行动,并进而影响个体的行动结果(例,草原的可持续发展)。进而探讨了通过政策或制度安排来利用策略人的策略决策谋取预期政策或制度收益的可能性和其现实响应,并与策略人的四种典型策略决策相对应,依次讨论了策略约束性、保护性、诱导性以及学习性四种政策或制度安排。

Traditional decision - making theories neglect the analysis of individuals＇ tactical behaviors and tactical decision making. This study fills the gap by developing a theory of tactical man and a tactical decision making model. Through a serial of a- gent - based simulations, it explores four fundamental and classical methods of tactical decision making： tactical voting, covering- up, transactional, and leaning- based, and claims that individuals＇ tactical behaviors strongly influence their decision making and then differentiate their action results, for example, the sustainable development of grassland. It also analyzes the policy implications and empirical responses of tactical decision making, in particular, four policy or institution- al arrangements--tactical - constraints - based, protecting, induced, and learning - based--in response to four classical methods of tactical decision making.