基于因素分解模型的北京市电能消费分析

Beijing's Power Consumption Analysis Based on Factor Decomposition Model

从电力弹性系数、电能生产对需求的满足程度、电能消费结构以及电能效率四个方面对北京市的电能消费现状进行分析;在此基础上,利用完全因素分解法对北京电能消费效率进行研究,结果表明北京市电能效率的提升主要依赖第二产业以及各产业电能效率的带动;最后,利用LMDIⅠ对北京电能的需求进行分解,测算结果表明北京电能需求的增长主要归因于经济规模的扩大。

In this paper,the status quo of power consumption in Beijing is analyzed from four aspects,including electric elasticity coefficient, the satisfaction level that power production meets demand, power consumption structure and power efficiency. On this basis,Beijing＇ s power consumption efficiency is discussed with total factor decomposition model, and the result indicates that the rise of Beijing＇ s power efficiency is mainly driven by the development of secondary industry and power efficiency of each industry. Eventually,Beijing＇ s power demand is decomposed by LMDI I model, and the result indicates that the growth of Beijing＇ s power demand is mainly ascribed to the expansion of economic scale.