城市工业部门脱钩分析

Decoupling Analysis for Urban Industrial Sectors:A Case Study of Chongqing

节能减排是我国应对能源短缺与全球变暖两大环境热点问题的基本国策。目前国家已经制定了一系列节能减排目标并分解落实到地区与行业执行。城市是人类生产和生活的中心,快速城市化带来了人口、能源消费和碳排放的激增。工业部门在城市经济发展和能源消费中占据着重要地位,因此成为节能减排工作的重点对象。重庆市对西部地区的发展有着重要的意义,目前在工业化进程中面临着巨大的节能减排压力。本文以重庆市为案例对象,应用脱钩分析方法研究了该市各工业部门经济增长、能源消耗和碳排放之间的关联特征,并提出脱钩稳定性指标用以评价脱钩状态的波动情况。结果表明:重庆市工业部门能源消费品种单一,对煤炭依赖性过大;高能耗部门虽然表现为弱脱钩,且脱钩稳定性高,但能耗强度和碳排放强度偏大,远高于工业部门的平均水平;部分中低能耗部门由于生产技术相对落后和关键节能减排技术缺失造成能源利用效率参差不齐和碳排放水平不稳定。依据研究结果本文提出重庆市工业部门节能减排的实施建议。

Energy conservation and emission reduction is one of the basic state policies in China to deal with energy shortage and global warming issues. The central government of China has developed a set of goals and designated specific tasks to local governments. Cities are the center of human life and production activities, and rapid urbanization has brought about rapid growth of population, energy consumption and carbon emission. Industrial sector is playing an important role in urban economic development and energy consumption, and thus, it should be an essential target of energy conservation and emission reduction. Chongqing, an important city in southwest China, is under mounting pressure of achieving the goals. Decoupling theory was then employed in this paper to analyze the relationships between the economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emission of industrial sectors in Chongqing. Meanwhile, a new indicator was proposed to estimate the stability of decoupling and forecast its trend. Results showed that： 1 ） the industrial sector in Chongqing depends mostly on coal for energy supply; 2） though in a stably weak decoupling condition, energy intensity and emission intensity of some sectors are well above the average; 3 ） the two sectors with low energy intensity have poor stability due to the restriction of technology. Several suggestions on energy conservation and emission reduction are finally recommended for the sustainable development of Chongqing industrial sectors.