土地督察对土地违法的遏制效应评价

Effects of Land Supervision on Containing the Illegal Land Use in China

选择当年发生土地违法案件数和当年发生土地违法涉案面积作为主要表征指标,收集了2002-2009年的省级面板数据,分析土地督察对土地违法是否有影响以及影响的程度。论文分别采用了固定效应模型、随机效应和混合OLS模型加以估计,通过相关检验,最后选用了固定效应模型的估计结果。在模型估计结果的基础上,对土地督察的违法遏制效果进行了评价。分析表明:①土地督察的确对减少土地违法有显著影响,土地例行督察覆盖度每提高1%,可能减少土地违法案件92件,可能使土地违法涉案面积减少约2.18%;②若对某省份实施了专项督察,则可能减少土地违法案件7件,可能使土地违法涉案面积减少31.11%;③由于实行了土地例行督察和专项督察,可能使2007-2009年的土地违法案件分别少发生84件、3 473件和12 500件,土地违法涉案面积分别少发生2 314.13 hm2、1 919.75 hm2和3 046.57 hm2。

The purpose of this paper aimed to assess the effects of land supervision on illegal land use. The question about this is defined whether land supervision has reduced illegal land use, and if so, how much. The province-level panel data from 2002 to 2009 was used in this research, and the fixed effects model, random effects model and pooled OLS model were applied to estimate the equations. The test about those models suggests that the fixed effects model is more appropriate than random effects model and pooled OLS model. The effectiveness of land supervision on the decrease of illegal land use was evaluated based on the statistical significance of variable about land supervision and by computing estimated decreased areas involved/the number of illegal land use cases with and without land supervision in effect. The result shows that ： （ 1 ） Land supervision has provided a measurable degree of decreasing areas and the number of illegal land use cases ; （2） If land special supervision is carried out in a province, 7 cases of illegal land use can be possibly decreased, and illegal land areas can be possibly reduced by 31.11% ; （3） Because of the implementation of land routine supervision and special supervision, the number of illegal land use cases from 2007 to 2009 would respectively decrease 84, 3 473 and 12 500, and illegal land use areas would respectively decrease 2 314.13 hm2, 1 919.75 hm2 and 3 046.57 hm2. It is concluded that： there is significant influence of land supervision system on illegal land use.