泉州市城市化与工业污染水平计量模型研究

Modeling the Level of Urbanization and Industrial Pollution in Quanzhou City

根据环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)假设,以泉州市1991～2009年城市化水平作为经济指标,工业"三废"排放量作为环境指标,定量分析泉州市城市化与工业污染之间的耦合规律.研究结果表明:工业COD排放量与城市化率的拟合曲线符合EKC的倒"U"模型,EKC的转折点已经实现.工业废水排放量、工业固废产生量的拟合曲线呈现为"U"+倒"U"型,工业废气、工业SO2排放量的拟合曲线呈现为"U"型的右侧部分,均未达到EKC的转折点.工业污染强度系数与城市化强度系数的拟合曲线为"S"型,说明泉州市工业污染物排放随着城市化的发展整体呈上升趋势.结论建议:产业结构是影响工业污染物排放的主要因素,泉州市应制定更加严厉的环境政策,优化产业结构,强化节能减排措施,争取尽早跨越EKC转折点.

Investigates the relationship between urbanization and industrial pollution in Quanzhou city based on the environmental Kuznets curve（EKC） hypothesis.Industrial ＂three wastes＂ discharges are used as environmental indicators and urbanization rate is used as the economic indicator by using the series statistical data from 1991 to 2009.The results show that the coupling curve of industrial COD and urbanization rate conform to the typical EKC inverted-U pattern.Its EKC turning point has been reached.The curves of industrial waste water discharge and industrial solid waste generation take the shape of U plus inverted-U pattern.The curves of industrial waste gas discharge and industrial SO2 discharge show the shape of the right part of U pattern.Their EKC turning points haven’t been reached respectively.The coupling model of industrial pollution intensity coefficient and urbanization intensity coefficient takes ＂S＂ pattern.It shows that the industrial pollutants discharge has been always rising along with urbanization development in Quanzhou.The conclusion and suggestion is that industrial structure is a mainly factor effecting pollutant emission.Quanzhou should further make strict environmental policies and optimize industrial structure,and strengthen energy saving and emission reduction in order to pass the turning point of EKC as soon as possible.