自然灾害对我国农业全要素生产率的影响

Effects of Natural Disasters on Agricultural TFP of Our Country

我国是自然灾害较为严重的国家之一,自然灾害已经威胁到我国农业的正常生产经营.首先使用Malmquist指数测算出我国1994～2010年的农业全要素生产率,然后通过Granger和协整分析检验自然灾害对农业全要素生产率的影响程度.结果表明:(1)我国农业全要素生产率在1994～2010年存在周期性波动;(2)自然灾害是农业全要素生产率的格兰杰因,其在短期内的增加抑制了后者的提高;(3)长期来看,农业成灾率每增加1%,我国的农业全要素生产率将下降0.014 1%.

China is one of the countries mostly affected by natural disasters that have threatened the normal production of the agriculture.Agricultural Total Factor Productivity（TFP） of our country in 1994～2010 is firstly calculated by Malmquist index.Then the influence degree of natural disasters on agricultural TFP is tested using Granger Causality test and cointegration analysis.The results are represented as follows：Firstly,Chinese agricultural TFP fluctuates periodically from 1994 to 2010;Secondly,natural disasters are the Granger cause of agricultural TFP.That is,natural disasters suppress the improvement of agricultural TFP in the short term;Lastly,Chinese agricultural TFP will decrease 0.014 1% with one percent increase of agriculture areas affected by natural disasters in the long term.