人口增长、城市化对环境的影响——以CO_2排放为例

The Impact of Population Growth,Urbanization on the environment:An empirical study based onemissions

基于1978—2007中国宏观经济时间序列数据,利用协整回归方法和误差修正模型(ECM),实证分析了人口增长、城市化水平、人均GDP和能源强度对CO2排放的影响。结果显示,人口总量、城市化水平、人均GDP和能源强度与CO2排放存在长期均衡关系。长期来看,人口总量对CO2排放量的影响最大,城市化水平其次,人均GDP最小。短期来看,能源强度和人均GDP对CO2排放波动影响较大,而人口总量和城市化水平影响不显著。

Based on 1978-2007 China＇s macro-economic time-series data,using cointegration regression method and error correction model （ECM） ,the article have made an Empirical Analysis about the impact of population, urbanization level,per capita GDP and energy intensity on the carbon dioxide emissions. The results showed that the total population, urbanization level,per capita GDP,energy intensity and carbon dioxide emissions exists long-run equilibrium relationship. In long term,the impact of the total population on carbon dioxide emissions is the most, followed by the level of urbanization. The impact of per capita GDP is the smallest. In short term,energy intensity and GDP per capita is of significant impact on the emissions of carbon dioxide fluctuations ,while the total population and urbanization level are of no significant impact.