国内群体性事件发展趋势分析与预测

Analysis of Domestic Collective Actions and their Development Trends

当前国内群体性事件表现出诉求表达理性、组织化程度提高,暴力性、对抗性、破坏性、激烈性明显增强和主体变化等阶段性特征。本研究在阐述国内学者有关观点基础上,预测国内群体性事件在近期内的大体走势和需要特别关注的动向;提出了今后10年至20年,中国中西部地区是一个值得高度关注的地区的观点。建立全国社会预警系统、试行区域性社会稳定风险监测评估、通过规划项目安排保障预警研究和成立专门机构、建设一支多学科研究队伍是提高国内社会稳定水平的重要途径之一。

At present, the domestic collective actions have the following features： rational and good organization, more dramatic and violent, and more antagonistic. With a review of the domestic schol- ars＇ findings, the paper predicts the development trends of the domestic collective actions in near fu- ture and concludes that in the 10-20 years the central and western part of China should receive more attention in terms of collective actions. Thus, it is tern based on specific institutions and teams and a necessary to establish a national early-warning sys-