空间计量模型视角下环境库兹涅茨曲线形成机理研究

China's Environmental Pollution Can be Improved:Environmental Pollution and Economic Growth Relation Research on the Intrinsic Mechanism

传统的环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)在研究中往往隐含着特定地区的环境污染程度彼此独立互相之间不存在关系的假设,这就抹杀了空间因素对环境-经济关系的影响,由此得出的结果也是值得商榷的。为解决这个问题,同时又使环境库兹涅茨曲线研究具有更高的可信度,故采用空间计量的方法,利用综合污染指数作为环境污染指数CPI,并基于2000—2010年的数据对环境库兹涅茨曲线在空间计量的视角下进行研究,得出环境污染存在明显空间相关性的结论。

This paper first analyses the environmental pollution of China＇s unique economic background, and then using the 2000to 201011 years of data to build the comprehensive pollution index of the comprehensive consideration of environmental pollution index, use at the same time measurement method is validated by Chinese environment Kuznets curve exists and the various provinces were predicted arrival time of inflection point. In the prediction of outcome on the basis of the introduction of＂ environmentalcarrying capacity threshold＂ to the traditional Kuznets curve is corrected, led in inflection point before the advent of touch＂ environmental carrying capacity threshold＂ risk. In order to avoid this risk, this article from the scale effect, structure effect, technology effect three angle of inverted U type environment of the Kuznets curve formation mechanism were analyzed, the analysis results that there is an inherent mechanism that EKC appears out of type U morphology. With the economic growth, economic development model has the potential to be the market this ＂ invisible hand＂ is automatically drawn into the path of circular economy in the past, as long as the government, enterprises and society together can make traditional EKC jumping, to create a new＂ peak＂ Kuznets environment curve, so as to completely avoid touching the＂ environmental carrying capacity threshold＂ risk.