基于产能核算的耕地人口承载力动态预测研究——以四川省郫县为例

Study on Population Supporting Capacity of Cultivated Land Based on Production Capacity——A Case Study in Pixian County of Sichuan

为了科学预测耕地人口承载力水平,以成都市郫县为例,通过实地考察,在产能核算的基础上,形成了耕地生产能力的动态预测模型和土地承载力模型,进而划分人口承载力分区,并对郫县耕地的人口承载力进行分析评价。研究结果表明:(1)郫县2020年耕地生能力为50.5718万t,未来的耕地人口承载力较大,但是分布非常不均匀,乡镇之间可承载人数差距最大可达194377人;(2)犀浦、郫筒、红光等社会经济发达的地区耕地的人口承载力较小,人地矛盾尖锐,SR均大于0.90;(3)根据实证研究本测算方法符合了当地实际,具有客观性和科学性。

The aim was to predict the population capacity level of cultivated land scientifically.This paper was a case study of the fieldwork in Pixian which was based on the accounting production capacity.It formed the cultivated land production capacity dynamic prediction model and land capacity model,then divided the region of population supporting capacity,made an holistic analysis on Pixian’s population supporting capacity of land.The results showed that：（1） The cultivated land production capacity of Pixian was 505718 t,and the population supporting capacity was large in the coming years.But it distributed uneven,and the largest capacity difference between countryside and town could be 194377.（2） Economical advanced area such as Xipu,Pitong,Hongguang,the population supporting capacity was small.The contradiction between land and population was serious.SR was more than 0.90.（3） According to the empirical study measuring method in line with the actual local,was objective and scientific.