基于改进GM(1,1)模型的Vb程序实现及其应用

Vb Program Realization Based on Improved GM(1,1) Model and its Application

针对传统GM(1,1)模型中权值的取法,提出了自动寻优定权的改进措施。本文介绍了非等时数据的等时内插理论,原灰色模型改进方法及预测精度的评定。利用Vb工具编写灰色模型自动寻优定权程序,得到最优的预测值,并通过与传统模型的预测值相比较,表明滑坡监测数据的预测预报得到了显著提高。算例结果表明利用此种预测方法是有效、可行的,更适合实际环境需要。

For the way of choosing value in the traditional GM （1,1） model, the author puts {or- ward an approach of automatic optimizing improvement. In this paper, the author introduces inter- polation theory of the isochronous data, the improved method of grey model and the prediction ac- curacy of the evaluation, Vb is used to write automatic optimization weighting process of the grey model to get the optimal predictive value, And with the comparison of the traditional model of pre- dictive value, it shows that the landslide monitoring data forecast has been improved significantly. The results of numerical examples show that the prediction method is effective and feasible. It is more suitable for the needs of the actual environment.